The Pentagon is formally weighing a reduction of US forces in Europe ranging from roughly 25,000 to 40,000 troops, according to NBC News reporting published September 17 that cites seven current and former US and Western officials. The upper end of that range would remove close to half of the approximately 80,000 American service members currently stationed on the continent. The review also covers aircraft, naval assets and weapons systems, not personnel alone.
The reporting, from NBC's Dan De Luce, Gordon Lubold, Courtney Kube and Abigail Williams, describes four courses of action under consideration: cuts to aviation units, cuts to naval forces, cuts to ground troops, or repositioning assets toward NATO's eastern flank rather than a full withdrawal. No decision has been made. Germany, Italy and Spain, the three countries reportedly expected to absorb most of any reduction, host the largest US footprints in Europe, with Germany alone hosting roughly 36,000 troops.
The mechanics and the timeline
This is not a standalone announcement. It is the latest stage of a six-month force posture review that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered in June, shaped by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby's push for European allies to take primary responsibility for conventional defense, as Crisis.Zone reported in August. General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of US European Command and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is expected to deliver an initial assessment to Hegseth as early as September 18. A final recommendation is due November 6, before any proposal reaches President Trump.
The review builds on a pattern already documented on this beat. Crisis.Zone reported in May on the Pentagon's abrupt cancellation of a 4,000-troop deployment to Poland, and roughly 5,000 troops were withdrawn from Germany earlier this year, while Trump posted last night that a base in Poland is a option. Two major NATO commands, in Naples and Norfolk, reportedly transferred to European officers in February.
Observers are reading: how the Pentagon's four options map onto specific NATO defense plans, and which capability gap allies fear most.
Become an Observer — it's free. Get full access to all Crisis.Zone analysis, briefings and breaking coverage.
What allies can plan for
Michael McFaul, the former US Ambassador to Russia, has already asked what national security interest the reduction would serve. Bipartisan congressional criticism has focused on the Pentagon's lack of transparency around the review's mechanics. None of that settles the underlying question facing NATO planners: allies can adapt to lower force levels that follow predictable timelines, but not to security guarantees that depend on political compliance. November 6 is the date that resolves which kind of drawdown this is.
Become an Observer — it's free — to unlock direct links to all sources used in this article.
We believe you deserve to verify everything we write. That's why we meticulously document every source.
