Key takeaways
- President Trump said on October 24 that new strikes on Iran could come "maybe tomorrow," while saying a deal remains possible.
- The U.S. has over 50,000 personnel in the region, and the State Department ordered staff out of Saudi Arabia.
- Iranian officials threaten undersea cables, refineries and Gulf infrastructure, and Houthi missiles and drones have already struck Saudi cities.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday, October 24, that the United States is considering a new round of strikes on Iran, possibly as early as Sunday. Speaking to reporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, after early voting, he said: "We're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow." He said his goal was to keep Iran from eventually developing a nuclear weapon, according to Anadolu Agency. He also said a "big, beautiful agreement" remains possible, then added: "They want to make a deal, but the problem is, will they hold the deal?"
The warning followed a Friday campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida. There Trump said the United States "may do another little Epic Fury" or Iran will agree to terms. Epic Fury is the name of the campaign Washington launched on February 28. In the Arabian Sea, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington has been operating at night. It is reportedly taking on long-range surface-to-surface missiles and GBU-31 Victor 4 bunker-buster bombs. The officer in charge of armament said some of the arriving items weigh around 4,800 pounds.
Forces in place, authorization pending
The build-up around the carrier is large. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which runs American operations in the region, has more than 50,000 personnel and about 20 warships deployed. Two carrier strike groups are on station, the USS George Washington and the USS George H.W. Bush. A third, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is on its way. So is the USS Makin Island amphibious ready group, which carries 4,000 Marines and sailors. The force continues a regional build-up that began in the first weeks of the war.
Diplomats are leaving. The U.S. State Department ordered non-essential staff and families out of Saudi Arabia, from Riyadh, Jeddah and Dhahran. It made smaller staffing cuts in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Lebanon and Jordan. The department cited a warning from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton about advanced Iranian plots to kill U.S. personnel.
Analysts describe the posture as set but the authorization as contingent. Trump has framed the choice as a win either way, strike or deal.
Observers are reading: A full account of Iran's split diplomatic signals and the three regional fronts where its threats are already being tested.
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What the threat has to reckon with
Two political calendars sit behind the language. Israel holds a parliamentary election on October 27, and the U.S. midterm elections follow on November 3. Whether Trump's words are signalling or preparation is not established. The record so far is limited. A former executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency's Middle East/Africa Regional Center says the strikes since April, mostly on Iran's coasts, and the killing of key figures did not force Iran to change course. The Trump administration, for its part, argues that sanctions and the naval blockade are weakening Iran's economy as inflation rises. They did not move Tehran to give up its nuclear leverage or reopen Hormuz. A June memorandum of understanding brokered in Islamabad has stalled.
In Riyadh, Erbil and Baghdad, the exposure is plain. Those cities sit within range of the responses Iranian officials have described. On the evidence so far, carrier-based pressure can reach Iran's coast, while the threats Tehran has named lie elsewhere. As of 10:30 CET on Sunday, October 25, no new U.S. strike had been announced.
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