President Donald Trump announced on social media that United States forces have executed what he termed a "large scale strike" on Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who were subsequently flown out of the country. The statement followed reports of explosions at key military installations in Caracas, including La Carlota airbase and the Fuerte Tiuna military complex. The Venezuelan government declared a "state of external commotion" as the strikes unfolded.
The operation represents the kinetic culmination of a five-month military buildup in the Caribbean that included naval deployments, the positioning of thousands of troops, and what the administration characterized as counter narcotics operations. What began as rhetoric about drug trafficking has terminated in direct military action to effect regime change in America's hemisphere—a demonstration that when core strategic interests are perceived to be at stake, the United States retains both the capability and willingness to employ decisive force unilaterally.
The operational pretext
The path to military intervention was constructed methodically. The administration designated Venezuelan entities including the so-called "Cartel de los Soles" as terrorist organizations, authorized CIA covert action, and imposed what functionally amounted to a naval quarantine in the Caribbean. These measures created a legal and operational framework that transformed what had been economic pressure into preparation for kinetic operations.
The "war on drugs" narrative served its purpose as political cover, but the strategic logic was transparent to any serious observer. Venezuela's alignment with Russia and China, its position astride significant oil reserves, and the broader challenge it posed to U.S. regional primacy constituted the actual calculus. The counternarcotics framing allowed the administration to position military assets and build public support while obscuring the fundamental nature of what was being prepared: a classic great power intervention in its sphere of influence.
The strikes on military installations rather than symbolic targets indicate operational seriousness. La Carlota and Fuerte Tiuna are not narcotics facilities; they are command and control nodes of the Venezuelan state. Their targeting reveals the mission's true objective—decapitation of the existing regime, not interdiction of drug flows.
Members are reading: Analysis of the failed diplomatic off-ramps, hostage dynamics, and what Maduro's removal signals to Moscow, Beijing, and beyond.
The uncertain aftermath
The immediate tactical success—assuming Maduro remains in custody and the Venezuelan military does not fracture into sustained resistance—does not guarantee strategic victory. Installing a successor government that can govern effectively, manage Venezuela's economic collapse, and maintain legitimacy without appearing as a U.S. puppet represents a challenge of a different magnitude than the military operation itself. The historical record of externally imposed regime change in Latin America offers sobering lessons about the gap between intervention and stability.
The primacy of national interest has been asserted through the logic of power politics. The United States has demonstrated it will not tolerate what it perceives as hostile governance in its near abroad, regardless of international legal norms or multilateral process. Whether this action restores American credibility or undermines it depends entirely on what follows. A swift transition to legitimate governance might validate the intervention in realpolitik terms. A protracted occupation, insurgency, or client regime that proves incapable of governing would achieve the opposite—confirming that military capability cannot substitute for political strategy. The decisive action has been taken. The harder work of managing its consequences has just begun.
Update 16:16 CEST:
International Response
Global reactions to the U.S. military operation have sharply divided along predictable geopolitical lines. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned what he called a "criminal attack" on a zone of peace. Russia characterized the strikes as "armed aggression" and called for dialogue, while China issued widespread condemnation of the military action. In contrast, Argentina's President Javier Milei praised the operation against what he termed a "narco-terrorist" regime. The European Union, represented by High Representative Kaja Kallas, considers Maduro illegitimate but urged restraint in the current situation. Brazil's President Lula warned of risks of chaos and instability in the region.
Federal Charges Filed
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that Maduro and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López have been charged in the Southern District of New York with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons violations involving machine guns and destructive devices.
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Trump Details Operation and Political Transition
In an extended Fox News interview, President Trump provided significant details about both the military operation and his administration's vision for Venezuela's political future. Trump confirmed that Maduro attempted to negotiate immediately before his capture, revealing he had spoken with the Venezuelan leader approximately one week prior to the operation. He characterized these last-minute overtures as insufficient. Regarding casualties, Trump stated U.S. forces sustained minor injuries but no fatalities, framing the operation as bringing "liberty for the people" of Venezuela. The president disclosed he is actively making decisions on Venezuela's future governance structure. While acknowledging opposition leader María Corina Machado as a potential figure in Venezuela's next chapter, he noted complications arising from the current constitutional structure—Venezuela has an executive vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, whose legal status following Maduro's capture remains unresolved. Trump announced substantial U.S. engagement in Venezuela's petroleum sector, though specifics on the nature of that involvement were not detailed. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, though production has collapsed under years of mismanagement and international sanctions. In a stark warning to remaining regime loyalists, Trump cautioned that those who continue their allegiance face "bleak prospects." This message appears directed at military and civilian officials still embedded in Venezuela's security apparatus, potentially offering an exit for those willing to cooperate with a transition. Trump also revealed the operation had been delayed four days due to adverse weather conditions, indicating the strikes were planned with precision and awaited optimal execution parameters.
The Delcy Rodríguez Question
Delcy Rodríguez's whereabouts and intentions represent a critical uncertainty in Venezuela's immediate political future. As executive vice president since 2018, she theoretically holds constitutional authority to assume presidential duties. However, her status as a longtime Maduro loyalist makes her an unlikely figure in any U.S.-backed transition. Sources tell Reuters that Delcy Rodriguez could be in Russia.
Venezuelan Military Response
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López—now facing U.S. federal charges—stated "we do not give up" in response to the strikes, though the practical implications of this defiance remain unclear given the military's compromised command structure.
Opposition Silence
Opposition leader María Corina Machado has not issued an official statement regarding the operation or Maduro's capture, a notable absence given her prominence in Venezuela's pro-democracy movement.
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Diego Martinez
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