The US-led coalition is due to end its 22-year military mission in Iraq on 30 September. All bases and headquarters have been handed over to Iraqi authorities, and the last remaining forces are leaving Erbil in the Kurdistan Region. Of roughly 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq this year, only a few hundred remain. The Iraqi government has declared the date a national holiday, the "day of sovereignty".
The departure is planned without ceremony or press access, on the orders of US Central Command (CENTCOM), the American military command responsible for the Middle East. It comes while the United States is at war with Iran, a conflict that began in February 2026. Iran-aligned Iraqi factions are already describing the exit as their victory. This article answers one question: what does the end of the coalition mission change for those armed factions?
What the factions are claiming
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (an umbrella of Iran-backed armed factions), called the withdrawal "a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project." He said: "On September 30, we will celebrate the turning of a black page in Iraq's history." The group has also declared it will "oversee Iraqi airspace to ensure it is not violated by hostile planes."
Tehran has echoed the framing. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, Iran's deputy chairman of the National Security Commission, said Iran "welcomes the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and will undoubtedly support it." He added that "lasting security will prevail in Iraq" once the Americans leave.
Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli offered a structural reading. "Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition's departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran's influence in Iraq," he said. He added that the militias are positioning to "translate that momentum into greater influence over security and political decision-making."
The two narratives describe the same event. Baghdad presents the exit as the fulfilment of a sovereignty demand, not a concession. The factions present it as a defeat imposed on Washington. What may differ is who each expects to hold the authority the coalition leaves behind.
Observers are reading: the three preconditions the factions attach to disarmament, and what the June 2027 deadline will test.
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What to watch after 30 September
The end of the coalition mission changes the setting, not yet the balance of arms. The factions have gained a political claim to victory and, according to al-Bahadli, a route to greater influence. They have not disarmed, and their stated conditions extend beyond the coalition itself.
Their external reach is a separate matter and should be read with care. Drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline this month, and attribution remained unresolved in our reporting. Houthi strikes on Saudi airbases in mid-September form part of the wider Iran-aligned pressure on Riyadh. In March, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it shot down a US refuelling aircraft, a claim CENTCOM disputed.
Three markers will show direction: whether the June 2027 date holds, whether the new PMF directorate receives weapons in practice, and whether the airspace pledge becomes more than rhetoric. An unnamed Iraqi official told The National: "No one is clear about the future posture of the government, militias, or foreign actors in Iraq." As of 29 September, that summary appears to hold.
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