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Key takeaways
- Reuters reports two Russian satellites drifting toward ICEYE's X37 after Cosmos 2612 came within about a kilometre of X36.
- Analyst Greg Gillinger calls the encounter an attack rehearsal, while Germany's space commander says orbital data alone cannot establish intent.
- No damage is reported, ICEYE says X36 remains productive, and no approach to X37 has been confirmed.
Two Russian satellites are drifting toward the orbital path of X37, a radar-imaging satellite operated by the Finnish company ICEYE, Reuters reported on 5 November. The reported movement follows an encounter around mid-October. In that encounter, a Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2612, came within about a kilometre (half a mile) of ICEYE's X36 craft. No damage or disruption has been reported.
Greg Gillinger is a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US firm that trains US space forces, and a former US Air Force intelligence officer. He told Reuters the October encounter "looks like an attack rehearsal." He said two "sibling" Russian satellites are now drifting toward the orbital path of X37, another ICEYE spacecraft. COMSPOC, a US space-tracking firm, said the pair were "becoming increasingly well positioned to approach X37." Reuters did not report that any approach had taken place. Russia's defence ministry did not respond to its request for comment.
How Cosmos 2612 closed on X36
Russia launched six military satellites in April, including Cosmos 2612. Slingshot Aerospace, a US space intelligence firm, publicly categorises Cosmos 2612 as a "servicing inspection satellite." In May, space analysts told Reuters, Russia positioned four of the six close to X36. ICEYE supplies radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine, and public catalogues list both X36 and X37 as US-registered. Chief executive Rafal Modrzewski told Reuters in September that ICEYE later moved X36, prompting further Russian manoeuvres.
In early October, Cosmos 2612 took position hundreds of kilometres behind X36. It then closed the distance over several days. Around mid-October it came within about a kilometre of the ICEYE craft. Some analysts said it was within a few hundred metres or less. Afterwards it moved about 400 km (250 miles) away, according to Gillinger. Three space specialists told Reuters it was one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low orbit.
Washington reacted publicly. After the mid-October incident, US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said on X, according to Reuters, that Cosmos 2612 had been "intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite." He said the conduct was "consistent with on-orbit weapons operations." Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE's US operations, told Reuters that X36 "has been and will continue to be a productive satellite." She said ICEYE's constellation is resilient in the event of disruption.
Observers are reading: the competing expert readings of Cosmos 2612, and why public orbital data may not settle Russia's intent.
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What to watch next
Three things will clarify the picture. The first is whether the two Russian satellites actually approach X37, and how closely. The second is how Washington and Helsinki respond. The third is whether Moscow comments on the activity around ICEYE's craft.
The policy problem is already visible. ICEYE's satellites are US-registered but operated by a Finnish company, and they serve Western governments and Ukraine. Moscow has said that commercial satellites aiding Kyiv could become targets. How governments and commercial operators respond when intent cannot be proven remains an open question.
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