The Trump administration has covertly authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct lethal operations in Venezuela, according to recent revelations, marking the most significant escalation in U.S. policy toward the Maduro regime since the failed 2019 recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president. This development comes as the U.S. military maintains a massive Caribbean deployment—eight surface warships, a nuclear-powered submarine, and approximately 10,000 personnel—while conducting ongoing strikes against vessels allegedly trafficking drugs from Venezuelan waters. At least 27 people have been killed in these naval operations since early September, operations the Trump administration frames as counter-narcotics efforts but which American officials privately acknowledge aim to drive President Nicolás Maduro from power.
The convergence of covert CIA authorities with overt military action represents a critical inflection point in Washington's approach to Venezuela. Over the past week, tensions have escalated dramatically as President Trump renewed his accusations that Maduro leads the Cartel de los Soles and increased the bounty for his arrest to $50 million. Venezuela responded by mobilizing millions of militia members and announcing military exercises along its coasts, while requesting an emergency UN Security Council session to address what Foreign Minister Yván Gil described as imminent threats to Venezuelan sovereignty. The UN Security Council convened on October 10, with Russia's Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia condemning U.S. strikes as "gross violations of international law" following a "shoot first" policy. Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on the same day, adding a symbolic dimension to the crisis as international pressure mounts on both sides.
Can the United States achieve regime change in Venezuela through military pressure without triggering a broader regional conflict—or will this strategy backfire, strengthening Maduro's grip on power while destabilizing the entire Caribbean basin?
The covert authorization: CIA's return to lethal operations
The Trump administration's decision to grant the CIA authority to conduct lethal covert operations in Venezuela represents a significant expansion of the agency's role in Latin America. According to reporting from The New York Times, the authorization would allow the CIA to take covert action against Maduro or his government either unilaterally or in conjunction with larger military operations. While it remains unknown whether the CIA is actively planning operations or if the authorities serve as contingency measures, the development coincides with the U.S. military drawing up options for President Trump, including possible strikes inside Venezuelan territory.
The authorization forms part of a broader strategy developed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, working with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, aimed explicitly at ousting Maduro from power. American officials have been clear, privately, that the end goal is to drive the Venezuelan president from office—a marked departure from the administration's public framing of operations as purely counter-narcotics efforts.
This covert track runs parallel to the overt military campaign that has killed 27 people in four separate strikes on vessels in Caribbean waters since early September. The most recent strike, announced by Trump on October 14, reportedly killed six individuals on what the administration claimed was a drug-trafficking vessel. These operations have drawn sharp international condemnation, with Colombian President Gustavo Petro indicating there are "signs" that Colombian citizens were among those killed and calling for criminal proceedings against Trump at the United Nations.
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Naval strikes and the "maximum pressure" campaign
The U.S. military's Caribbean deployment represents an unprecedented show of force in the region. The deployment includes multiple surface warships, nuclear-powered submarines, and thousands of personnel, with operational assets dispersed across Caribbean bases and deployed throughout the region. This force projection far exceeds typical counter-narcotics operations and has been accompanied by the deployment of ten F-35 fighter jets and two MQ-9 Reaper drones to Puerto Rico, along with the special operations ship MV Ocean Trader.
The strikes themselves have followed a consistent pattern. On September 2, Trump announced the first attack, claiming U.S. forces struck a vessel operated by the Tren de Aragua gang, killing eleven people. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth subsequently announced plans for additional strikes, stating the United States would not be "flooded by cocaine, fentanyl and other drugs" from Venezuela. Three more strikes followed on September 15, 16, and October 3, before the most recent attack on October 14.
Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino told military leaders that the U.S. government knows its drug-trafficking accusations are false, with the true intent being to "force a regime change" in the South American country. This assessment aligns with private statements from American officials acknowledging that regime change, not counter-narcotics, is the ultimate objective.
The legal justification for these strikes remains highly contested. The Trump administration has designated both the Cartel de los Soles and Tren de Aragua as foreign terrorist organizations, with Trump declaring drug cartel members "unlawful combatants" in August. This designation theoretically provides legal cover for military action, though legal experts have cautioned that there is no clear authority to use military force against drug traffickers, even those designated as FTOs.
The strikes have drawn widespread international condemnation. At the UN Security Council emergency session on October 10, Russia's Ambassador Nebenzia stated that Venezuela had reason to fear the United States was ready to move from threats to action, condemning the strikes as boats being "simply fired upon in the high seas without a trial or investigation." Multiple Latin American countries, including Colombia and Brazil, have called for restraint, with Colombian President Petro declaring at the UN General Assembly that a "criminal process" should be opened against Trump for the strikes.
Venezuela's defensive mobilization and regional spillover
Maduro's response to the U.S. escalation has been comprehensive and increasingly militarized. On August 18, he announced the planned deployment of more than 4.5 million militia members from the Bolivarian Militia of Venezuela, though analysts have questioned whether these numbers are realistic given that Maduro received fewer than 3.8 million votes in the 2024 election. Independent military analysts have noted that accurate estimates of Venezuela's active militia membership are difficult to verify, with the force's actual operational capacity remaining uncertain despite the government's ambitious mobilization announcements.
Beyond the militia mobilization, Venezuela has conducted large-scale military exercises in the Caribbean involving naval and air forces. On September 4, two Venezuelan F-16 fighter jets flew over the USS Jason Dunham in what the Pentagon described as "highly provocative" behavior. Venezuela has also showcased Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets armed with anti-ship missiles, demonstrating both its military capabilities and its continued reliance on Russian support.
Maduro signed a State of Emergency on September 4, granting himself expanded security powers in case of external aggression. He has repeatedly stated that Venezuela is "confronting the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years" and vowed that the country would "defend what is ours" if attacked.
The crisis has already begun spilling beyond Venezuela's borders. The 2025 Catatumbo clashes in Colombia, which began on January 16 between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents, have killed at least 103 people and displaced over 53,000. On January 31, Maduro announced "Operation Lightning" against drug trafficking and illegal organizations on the border with Catatumbo, with Venezuelan troops engaging in direct combat with ELN forces from across the border. By March, Venezuelan forces had destroyed 27 camps of "illegal groups" on the Colombian border, demonstrating how the crisis is affecting regional security dynamics.
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International reactions and the diplomatic impasse
The international community's response to the escalating crisis has been deeply divided, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions. At the UN Security Council emergency session on October 10, Russia and China sharply criticized U.S. actions, while Western nations and some Latin American countries expressed more nuanced positions.
Russia's Ambassador Nebenzia condemned the strikes in the strongest terms, stating that boats were "simply fired upon in the high seas without a trial or investigation, according to the cowboy principle of 'shoot first.'" China's representative stressed that "unilateral and excessive enforcement operations against other countries' vessels infringe on relevant personnel's right to life and other basic human rights" and "pose a threat to freedom and security of navigation."
Latin American reactions have been mixed and reveal the region's complex relationship with both the United States and Venezuela. Colombian President Gustavo Petro initially suggested that any attack on Venezuela would equal an attack on Latin America and that Colombia's armed forces could support Venezuela, though he later moderated this position. On September 23, he addressed the UN General Assembly calling for a "criminal process" to be opened against Trump for the Caribbean strikes.
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used remarks at a recent BRICS summit to urge U.S. restraint in the Caribbean, while Mexico's foreign affairs secretary stressed the country's preference for a "peaceful solution of conflicts" during a press conference with visiting Secretary of State Rubio. In contrast, Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa thanked Rubio for the Trump administration's efforts to "actually eliminate any terrorist threat."
Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar praised the U.S. strikes, saying "the U.S. military should kill [all drug traffickers] violently," while offering the United States military access to Trinidad to protect Guyana amid the ongoing Guyana-Venezuela territorial crisis. Guyana's government has endorsed the deployment, with Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo telling The Financial Times, "You cannot trust Maduro."
The European Union, Canada, and the United Kingdom have reaffirmed their support for Venezuelan democracy and condemned Maduro's authoritarian actions, though they have stopped short of endorsing U.S. military operations. The awarding of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado on October 10 represented a significant symbolic victory for the opposition, with the Nobel committee praising her work for a "peaceful transition to democracy." Venezuela responded by closing its embassy in Norway, with Maduro's government calling the award politically motivated.
The diplomatic impasse appears complete. On October 6, Trump directed special envoy Richard Grenell to shut down all diplomatic talks with Venezuela amid growing frustrations with Venezuelan political dialogue. Qatar subsequently stepped in as a political intermediary to resume limited communications through back-channel diplomacy, but prospects for meaningful dialogue remain dim.
The humanitarian crisis and crimes against humanity
While geopolitical maneuvering dominates headlines, Venezuela's internal humanitarian catastrophe continues to worsen. Over 20 million Venezuelans—out of a population of 28.8 million—live in multidimensional poverty with inadequate access to food, medicine, water, and basic services, according to the independent platform HumVenezuela. The organization estimates that 14.2 million face severe humanitarian needs.
The post-election repression has been particularly brutal. Human Rights Watch documented 23 killings of protesters and bystanders following the July 28 election, identifying evidence linking security forces and pro-government armed groups known as "colectivos" with several killings. The local organization Foro Penal reported over 1,900 political prisoners arrested since July 29, including 42 adolescents aged 14 to 17. These arrests contribute to a total of 17,882 politically motivated arrests since 2014.
The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela has found reasonable grounds to believe that crimes against humanity have been committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population. On September 17, 2024, the FFM warned that Venezuelan authorities have committed the crime against humanity of politically motivated persecution. The Mission's March 2025 update confirmed that arbitrary detentions of persons perceived as opponents continue, with at least 42 arrests between September and December 2024 and 84 more during the first 15 days of January 2025.
Particularly alarming is the emergence of enforced disappearance as a widespread tool of repression. The UN Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances documented at least 27 cases during the post-election period. Amnesty International's report "Detentions without a trace" analyzed 15 cases of people forcibly disappeared between July 28, 2024, and June 15, 2025, finding that 11 remained subjected to enforced disappearance at the time of publication. Victims included Venezuelans and citizens of the United States, France, Spain, Ukraine, Colombia, and Uruguay.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has stated that political persecution has consolidated an apparatus of control that "reaches the threshold of state terrorism practices." An Organization of American States panel concluded in its report "From Detention to Torture and Disappearance: The Consolidation of State Terror in Venezuela" that the country has entered "the gravest phase of political repression in its modern history," representing "a critical inflection point: the moment at which the Venezuelan State advanced from the systematic commission of serious crimes against humanity to the consolidation of a fully matured authoritarian infrastructure maintaining power through fear, violence and erasure."
