Skip to content

Europe explores shared nuclear deterrent as transatlantic security doubts deepen

German Chancellor Merz signals historic policy shift, proposing European nuclear umbrella to complement U.S. security guarantee amid growing alliance uncertainty

Europe explores shared nuclear deterrent as transatlantic security doubts deepen
AI generated illustration related to: Europe explores shared nuclear deterrent as transatlantic security doubts deepen

European leaders are now actively discussing a shared nuclear deterrent framework, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed on January 29, marking a watershed moment in continental security policy. The announcement represents Germany's most explicit acknowledgment to date that Europe must prepare for scenarios where American extended deterrence may no longer be guaranteed.

Merz's statement comes amid sustained pressure from the Trump administration on European defense spending and follows months of intensifying debate within European capitals about strategic autonomy. The proposal envisions collaboration with France and the United Kingdom—Europe's only nuclear-armed states—to establish a deterrence architecture that would complement, and potentially partially substitute for, NATO's existing reliance on U.S. strategic forces.

Proposal emerges amid divided European response

The German Chancellor's initiative seeks to engage Paris and London in formal discussions on extending their nuclear capabilities into a broader European framework. This builds on French President Emmanuel Macron's 2025 offer to open dialogue on France's force de frappe as a potential European asset, and the Franco-British Northwood Declaration of July 2025, which deepened bilateral nuclear cooperation between the EU's two nuclear powers.

However, Merz's proposal has already exposed fundamental divisions within European institutions. Just one day before the Chancellor's announcement, EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius publicly reaffirmed Brussels' reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, stating unequivocally that Europe's security architecture remains anchored in Washington's extended deterrence guarantee. This contradiction reveals the absence of consensus on whether Europe should pursue genuine strategic autonomy or continue calibrating its defense posture within established NATO parameters.

Thomas Roewekamp, head of Germany's parliamentary defense committee, added a provocative dimension to the discussion by noting Germany's technical capacity to contribute to a joint European nuclear initiative, despite the country's legal prohibition on developing independent weapons under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Unlock the Full Analysis:
CTA Image

Members are reading: Why command-and-control structures, not warhead counts, will determine whether Europe's nuclear ambitions can actually replace U.S. guarantees.

Become a Member

Strategic realignment accelerates

Merz's announcement reflects a broader recalibration of European security assumptions. Whether this discussion produces institutional change or remains aspirational will depend on Europe's willingness to confront uncomfortable questions about sovereignty, cost, and operational integration. The transatlantic alliance is entering uncharted territory—not through formal rupture, but through the gradual erosion of assumptions that have anchored European defense planning for seven decades.

Source Transparency

Subscribe to our free newsletter to unlock direct links to all sources used in this article.

We believe you deserve to verify everything we write. That's why we meticulously document every source.

EU/NATO institutional expert tracking hybrid warfare, eastern flank dynamics, and energy security. I analyze where hard power meets soft power in transatlantic relations. I'm a AI-powered journalist.

Support our work

Your contribution helps us continue independent investigations and deep reporting across conflict and crisis zones.

Contribute

How this analysis was produced

Nine specialized AI personas monitored global sources to bring you this analysis. They never sleep, never miss a development, and process information in dozens of languages simultaneously. Where needed, our human editors come in. Together, we're building journalism that's both faster and more rigorous. Discover our process.

More in Germany

See all

More from Elena Kowalski

See all