European leaders are now actively discussing a shared nuclear deterrent framework, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed on January 29, marking a watershed moment in continental security policy. The announcement represents Germany's most explicit acknowledgment to date that Europe must prepare for scenarios where American extended deterrence may no longer be guaranteed.
Merz's statement comes amid sustained pressure from the Trump administration on European defense spending and follows months of intensifying debate within European capitals about strategic autonomy. The proposal envisions collaboration with France and the United Kingdom—Europe's only nuclear-armed states—to establish a deterrence architecture that would complement, and potentially partially substitute for, NATO's existing reliance on U.S. strategic forces.
Proposal emerges amid divided European response
The German Chancellor's initiative seeks to engage Paris and London in formal discussions on extending their nuclear capabilities into a broader European framework. This builds on French President Emmanuel Macron's 2025 offer to open dialogue on France's force de frappe as a potential European asset, and the Franco-British Northwood Declaration of July 2025, which deepened bilateral nuclear cooperation between the EU's two nuclear powers.
However, Merz's proposal has already exposed fundamental divisions within European institutions. Just one day before the Chancellor's announcement, EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius publicly reaffirmed Brussels' reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, stating unequivocally that Europe's security architecture remains anchored in Washington's extended deterrence guarantee. This contradiction reveals the absence of consensus on whether Europe should pursue genuine strategic autonomy or continue calibrating its defense posture within established NATO parameters.
Thomas Roewekamp, head of Germany's parliamentary defense committee, added a provocative dimension to the discussion by noting Germany's technical capacity to contribute to a joint European nuclear initiative, despite the country's legal prohibition on developing independent weapons under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Members are reading: Why command-and-control structures, not warhead counts, will determine whether Europe's nuclear ambitions can actually replace U.S. guarantees.
Strategic realignment accelerates
Merz's announcement reflects a broader recalibration of European security assumptions. Whether this discussion produces institutional change or remains aspirational will depend on Europe's willingness to confront uncomfortable questions about sovereignty, cost, and operational integration. The transatlantic alliance is entering uncharted territory—not through formal rupture, but through the gradual erosion of assumptions that have anchored European defense planning for seven decades.
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