Key takeaways
- The New York Times, citing a US official, reports USS Theodore Roosevelt will join two other carriers in the Middle East within a day.
- Neither the Pentagon nor CENTCOM has confirmed the schedule, and sources differ on whether the carrier relieves the George Washington or stays alongside.
- Iran launched drones toward Bahrain twice in three days, while the INSS says land-based US strike aviation is thinner than in March.
The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt will join two other US carriers in the Middle East within a day, the New York Times reported on Sunday, citing a US military official. That points to Monday. Neither the Pentagon nor US Central Command (CENTCOM), which runs US forces in the region, had publicly confirmed the schedule on Sunday. The Navy had not announced that the ship had entered the region.
The two carriers already there are the Japan-based USS George Washington and the Norfolk-based USS George H.W. Bush. Clash Report, citing the US Naval Institute (USNI) fleet tracker from last Monday, put both in the Arabian Sea. Anadolu Agency, Clash Report and JFeed all relayed the Times account. The report came on the same day Bahrain said it had intercepted drones from Iran, the second such attack on the kingdom in three days.
The ship, and the week around it
The Roosevelt left San Diego in late September, Clash Report said, citing USNI News. It took part in the Keen Sword 27 exercise in the Western Pacific, then called at Singapore. Sources give its departure as 8 or 9 November. Crisis.Zone tracked that departure. The carrier sailed west through the Malacca Strait with the cruiser USS Chosin and the destroyer USS Decatur. By Friday the group was in the Indian Ocean, heading for CENTCOM's area. Carrier Air Wing 11 is embarked.
President Donald Trump said last Monday that another carrier was "sailing over and just arriving in the Middle East, so we have three". The ship was then still in transit, so his wording ran ahead of its position.
In Bahrain, the Interior Ministry issued two alerts on Sunday urging residents to proceed to the nearest safe location. The Bahrain Defence Force said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed several Iranian aerial attacks before they reached their targets. No casualties or damage had been reported by Sunday evening. Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said six drones targeted a US air defense radar at the Al-Riffa helicopter base. That claim is unverified, and the US military had not commented on it by Sunday evening. On Friday the US military said it had downed two drones launched from Iran toward Bahrain. Crisis.Zone covered the Bahrain incidents. Anadolu and JFeed say the attacks ended a lull of about two months. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on Sunday that no military attack on Iran would go unanswered.
Observers are reading: how carrier numbers, bomber absences and the Bush deployment fit together, and what INSS says a March-scale air campaign would require.
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What a carrier does and does not settle
Analysis: a carrier on station is leverage, not an order. Washington's signals are mixed. Trump said last Monday that the war "militarily is effectively over". Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday there was "no need for military action". Reuters reported on Saturday that Trump told advisers he may hold off if Iran and the Houthis avoid new provocations. JFeed, citing US officials, says American and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for further strikes. No reported sequence of events shows a decision to resume major operations.
Four markers will show more than the number three. The first is official confirmation of the Roosevelt's arrival. The second is whether the George Washington leaves. The third is any movement of bombers and fighters. The fourth is diplomacy. Trump is due to raise Iran with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Shenzhen on 19 November, INSS says. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to travel to Pakistan and Oman in the coming days.
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