Key takeaways
- Rubio said on 8 November the US was not on the verge of an Iran breakthrough.
- Trump told CNN renewed strikes were highly unlikely if Iran signs a very strong agreement, without ruling them out.
- Iran wants sanctions and the blockade lifted before talks; Axios says Qatar's draft sets reciprocal steps over two days.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday 8 November that he "wouldn't say we're on the verge of a breakthrough" in talks with Iran. He spoke to reporters at Homestead Air Reserve Base in Florida before flying to Paris for a two-day meeting of Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers, which opened on Monday 9 November. "Right now, it hasn't been very productive because the Iranian demands are simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic," he said, as Bloomberg and Hindustan Times reported. He did not say which demands he meant.
Hindustan Times placed his remarks just hours after President Donald Trump gave CNN a phone interview. Trump said renewed US attacks were "highly unlikely" if Iran makes progress toward an agreement on its nuclear programme and on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," he said. He added: "I would if necessary, but we hit them really hard." Crisis.Zone's earlier reporting described two tracks running on the same clock after the midterms: military preparations and a Qatari draft deal.
Tehran's reply and the two tracks
Iran answered the same day. Araghchi wrote on X that "American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own," and said Iran's two-day proposal stands. He told IRNA, Iran's state news agency, that "there has been no activity or movement from the mediators" in recent days, Bloomberg reported.
On Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei asked what was unreasonable about demanding that Washington end sanctions, the naval blockade and "economic warfare" before negotiations begin. He said it was the US attack on Iran in the middle of negotiations that was outrageous and ridiculous, according to the Iran International live blog. He said the two-day plan "remains on the table".
Axios, citing regional sources, reported the Qatari draft. On day one, the US would lift its blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds, and Iran would invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to bombed nuclear sites. On day two, Hormuz would reopen and nuclear talks would resume. Neither side has said it accepts the draft, though sources told Anadolu the US approved a Qatari-presented memorandum. Trump was due to meet Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House on Monday, behind closed doors.
The military track continues. US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island. On 7 November it also announced Task Force Iron Gate, a cell of about 20 people aimed at Iran's land and Caspian routes.
Observers are reading: how the sequencing gap, the reported split inside the administration and the 3 January congressional clock fit together.
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What to watch
Three markers will show which track gains ground. The first is the outcome of Trump's meeting with Al Thani. Axios reported that the Qatari wants Trump to allow more time for diplomacy, and it is unclear how much he will give. The second is whether Washington gives a formal response to Iran's two-day proposal.
The third is whether "defensive" strikes continue. Rubio's stated standard is "a clear and present threat to shipping or to our forces in the region", according to Al Jazeera. Business Times and Iran International reported a further US strike on Qeshm overnight from 8 to 9 November. A Hormozgan deputy governor told state media that no vital infrastructure was damaged.
On Monday, Anwar Gargash of the United Arab Emirates warned of "a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted."
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