Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the United States is prepared to use military force to ensure Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodríguez severs ties with U.S. adversaries, even as intelligence assessments shared with senior officials in recent days cast doubt on whether she will cooperate. The threat marks a sharp escalation in Washington's attempts to reshape Venezuela's foreign policy following its extraordinary January 3 capture of former President Nicolás Maduro.
The contradiction between Rubio's public confidence and classified intelligence warnings exposes the fragility of the Trump administration's Venezuela strategy. Washington is attempting to coerce cooperation from a leader it previously sanctioned—Rodríguez served as Maduro's vice president and faces U.S. Treasury restrictions—who has publicly declared she has had "enough of U.S. orders." Four people familiar with the intelligence reports have confirmed that assessments question whether Rodríguez will formally cut Venezuela's relationships with Iran, China, and Russia, despite administration expectations.
Intelligence assessments clash with public optimism
The classified reports circulating among senior officials reflect a growing gap between the administration's public posture and internal evaluations of Rodríguez's intentions. According to sources familiar with the intelligence, analysts have highlighted her long-standing ties to the Maduro network and her history of defying Western pressure as indicators she may resist Trump administration demands.
The CIA had previously assessed that Maduro loyalists were best positioned to govern Venezuela, a judgment that now complicates the administration's reliance on Rodríguez to implement its agenda. Her elevation to interim president was not a product of negotiation but circumstance—the sudden removal of Maduro left his former vice president as the constitutional successor under Venezuelan law.
Rodríguez has made her position clear in recent public statements. In a speech shortly after assuming the interim presidency, she told supporters she had endured "enough of U.S. orders" and would govern according to Venezuelan interests. That defiance has not deterred the Trump administration from pursuing what amounts to a strategy of coerced cooperation, now backed by Rubio's explicit threat of military action.
Members are reading: How the administration's sanctions-plus-threats approach creates incentives for Rodríguez to deepen, not sever, adversary ties.
Unstable arrangement risks deepening crisis
The next 72 hours will reveal whether Rodríguez signals any willingness to negotiate on the adversary relationships or doubles down on her defiant posture. Intelligence officials are monitoring communications between Caracas and Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow for signs of coordination. The gap between Rubio's threats and intelligence doubts suggests the administration may be preparing for a scenario where Rodríguez refuses—raising the prospect of further U.S. intervention in an already volatile situation. Washington has constructed a high-risk strategy dependent on the cooperation of a leader it has given every reason to resist.
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