Key takeaways
- Thailand's foreign minister phoned his Myanmar counterpart on 3 November after cross-border fire injured at least one Thai citizen.
- Bangkok asked that Myanmar's airstrikes stay as far from the Thai border as possible, rather than asking for an end to them.
- Sihasak linked reduced violence to Myanmar's participation in ASEAN meetings and will visit Myanmar on 12 November.
Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, held a 10-minute telephone call with Myanmar's Foreign Minister, Tin Maung Swe, on Tuesday 3 November. Fighting across the border had left Thai nationals injured, Khaosod English reported on 4 November, and the Bangkok Post and BSS News reported damage to homes and property on the Thai side as well. Sihasak took the call in Beijing, where he was attending the 11th Mekong-Lancang Cooperation meeting.
Sihasak told Thai media that Myanmar's military operations against ethnic armed groups should not affect Thailand. He said airstrikes on operating bases should be as far from the Thai border as possible. According to Sihasak, Tin Maung Swe acknowledged the concerns and pledged to pass them promptly to Myanmar's leadership. Sihasak confirmed he will travel to Myanmar on 12 November, ahead of the leaders' summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Twelve days of spillover
The call followed a run of incidents along the 2,416-kilometre border. On 22 October a 40-mm mortar shell landed in Thailand and damaged two houses, the Irrawaddy reported, though a report published by Moemaka on 24 October put the incident at four 60-mm shells and four damaged homes. On 29 October, fighting at Min Let Pan village in Myawaddy sent rounds into Thailand, according to DVB, which cited a Myanmar migrant in Mae Sot. Myawaddy lies opposite Mae Sot district in Tak Province. DVB reported that a Thai woman was hospitalised in Mae Sot after being injured by a stray artillery shell fired from the Myanmar side, while the Irrawaddy said only that a Thai citizen was injured. Thai forces fired two warning rounds back, one smoke and one illumination.
On 31 October Myanmar aircraft bombed a position held by the Karen National Union (KNU), an ethnic armed group, opposite Mae Hong Son, according to both outlets. The blast shattered windows in Thailand. On 1 November, the Thai Air Force sent F-16 fighters on patrol along the western border, Thai media reported. DVB reported no casualties on either side.
On 2 November, Gen. Ukrit Boontanon, Thailand's Chief of Defence Forces, summoned Myanmar's military attaché in Bangkok. On the evening of 3 November, Thairath reported that stray rocket-propelled grenade rounds hit a rooftop in Mae Sot district. The family inside was unharmed. Gen. Chaiyapruek Duangprapat, secretary-general of Thailand's National Security Council, told the Bangkok Post: "Even a deviation of just one millimetre or one degree could cause a mortar shell to stray across into Thailand."
Observers are reading: how Bangkok's border security and ASEAN diplomacy collide, and why a pledge to relay concerns is not a change in operations.
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What to watch
The 12 November visit is the next test. Sihasak is due to meet Tin Maung Swe, and AFP reported that a meeting with Min Aung Hlaing is "in the works." Sihasak says he will press for ways to stop the conflict escalating onto Thai soil.
Border communities are not waiting for diplomacy. Phongpipat Meebenjamas, who heads the Mae Sam Laep sub-district administration in Mae Hong Son, told the Bangkok Post that the KNU had warned of further Myanmar airstrikes near the border. The Irrawaddy reported that some residents have protested to demand more security. Thai authorities say evacuation plans are being prepared.
Two things will show whether the diplomacy has worked: whether strikes near the border change, and whether Myanmar's delegation is seated at the mid-November summit in Manila.
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