When Saudi warplanes struck a weapons shipment at Mukalla port on December 30, the target wasn't Houthi militants—it was a UAE-linked consignment destined for Southern Transitional Council forces. Within hours, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government cancelled its defense pact with the Emirates and ordered Emirati forces to withdraw within 24 hours. Abu Dhabi complied, announcing a pullout framed as a voluntary conclusion of its counter-terrorism mission. But this wasn't a miscalculation or a communication breakdown. It was the public manifestation of a structural divergence that has been widening since the coalition's formation in 2015.
The alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen was always built on negative consensus—opposition to Houthi expansion—rather than positive alignment of long-term strategic interests. That fragile foundation has now fractured completely. Riyadh's airstrike and the subsequent expulsion reveal a fundamental incompatibility: Saudi Arabia requires a stable, unified Yemen to secure its 1,800-kilometer southern border, while the UAE seeks to project maritime power by controlling southern ports and sea lanes, best achieved through support for secessionist forces that would partition the country.