Mexico's criminal organizations are no longer experimenting with drones—they are refining doctrine. Between 2020 and mid-2023, SEDENA recorded 493 cartel drone incidents, climbing from five in 2020 to 107 in 2021, then 233 in 2022, with 260 incidents in the first half of 2023 alone. In April 2025, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) carried out Mexico's first documented first-person view (FPV) one-way attack drone strike, a milestone that signals the shift from improvised harassment to precision urban warfare.
This evolution sits within a broader global trend. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), at least 469 nonstate armed groups have deployed drones in attacks over the past five years, with 58 first-time adopters in the last twelve months alone. In 2025, seventeen countries—including Mexico and Colombia—recorded drone attacks. What distinguishes the Mexican trajectory is speed and tactical integration: cartels are now fielding FPV kamikaze platforms alongside IED-dropping quadcopters, improvised armored vehicles fitted with anti-drone "cope cages," and foot soldiers carrying commercial jamming kits. The question for policymakers is no longer whether cartels will standardize drone doctrine, but how states can constrain access, disrupt learning networks, and manage collateral risks when countermeasures themselves become tools of escalation.