- Former minister Issa Tchiroma's victory declaration directly challenges Biya's 43-year rule, risking arrest while escalating political tensions.
- US aid cuts withdrew support from 800,000 people, creating conditions for violence as electoral crisis meets humanitarian catastrophe.
- Succession uncertainty for 92-year-old Biya threatens factional conflict among entrenched elites controlling Cameroon's resources and institutions.
The political temperature in Cameroon has reached a boiling point. On October 15, 2025, opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary declared himself the winner of the October 12 presidential election, directly challenging 92-year-old President Paul Biya to concede defeat—despite official warnings that only the Constitutional Council can announce results. This stunning act of defiance from Biya's former communications minister has escalated tensions in a country already fractured by civil conflict, humanitarian crisis, and international neglect. As rival camps clash over the election outcome and the government threatens arrest for "anti-republican" behavior, one question looms: Can Cameroon navigate this volatile moment without descending into wider chaos?
The stakes extend far beyond who occupies the presidential palace in Yaoundé. With the Anglophone regions still engulfed in a brutal six-year conflict that has killed over 6,500 people and displaced nearly one million, with humanitarian aid cuts leaving vulnerable populations without essential services, and with Biya's inevitable succession creating uncertainty among entrenched elites, Cameroon stands at a critical juncture. The outcome of this electoral standoff will determine whether Africa's crossroads nation finds a path toward democratic renewal—or slides deeper into instability that could reverberate across Central Africa.
A former ally breaks ranks
Issa Tchiroma Bakary's journey from loyal government insider to opposition challenger represents one of the most dramatic political transformations in recent Cameroonian history. For more than two decades, the 79-year-old served in Biya's administration, including as Minister of Communication from 2009 to 2019 and Minister of Employment and Vocational Training from 2019 to 2025. During those years, he defended the president against corruption allegations and even supported the 2008 constitutional amendments that eliminated presidential term limits—the very change that has allowed Biya to remain in power.
But by June 2025, Tchiroma had grown disillusioned. In an open letter to the Cameroonian people, he announced his resignation from the government and his intention to challenge Biya's 43-year rule. He expressed frustration over his inability to meet with Biya one-on-one and accused the regime of having "stifled progress, paralyzed our institutions, and broken the bond of trust between the state and its citizens."
His candidacy, backed by the Front for the National Salvation of Cameroon (FSNC), generated unexpected enthusiasm among voters. His rallies drew exceptionally large crowds across the country, and most unverified results from polling units showed him leading. Many Cameroonians, especially young people facing joblessness and economic hardship, had looked up to Maurice Kamto, the runner-up in the 2018 presidential election who was subsequently arrested and detained. But Kamto was barred from running in this year's election. When a coalition of opposition parties and civil society put forth Tchiroma as a unity candidate, many threw their weight behind him.
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Government threatens crackdown as tensions escalate
The government's response to Tchiroma's victory declaration has been swift and threatening. Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji on Tuesday condemned Tchiroma's move as "conspiratorial and anti-republican," alleging that the candidate was pursuing "a diabolical plan, carefully orchestrated with secret networks at home and abroad" to destabilize Cameroon.
A week before the election, Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji had warned that any unauthorized release of results would be deemed "high treason," emphasizing that only the Constitutional Council can declare a winner. The Council has until late October to announce the outcome.
Without naming Tchiroma, Biya's Cameroon People's Democratic Movement condemned the self-declared victory as a "grotesque hoax," adding that only the Constitutional Council is enabled to proclaim results. Grégoire Owona, deputy secretary-general of Biya's RDPC, said that Tchiroma did not win and did not have the polling results.
The government's threats carry particular weight given recent history. In the 2018 presidential election, opposition challenger Maurice Kamto declared himself the winner the day after the vote. He was subsequently arrested and his supporters' rallies were dispersed with tear gas and water cannon, with dozens arrested. Kamto spent months in detention before being released.
Though it is unlikely that Tchiroma could be arrested immediately, the threat hangs heavily over him. His supporters clashed with security forces on Sunday on suspicion that the opposition figure might have been placed under de facto house arrest. A security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that there was an additional preemptive deployment to Tchiroma's northern stronghold—an indication the government is ready to clamp down should he push ahead with his claim before the official results are announced.
The African Union and the EU Election Observation Missions have called on stakeholders to remain calm and wait for the official results. But different political parties have congratulated either Tchiroma or Biya on their victory, further polarizing an already tense situation.
A country already in crisis
The electoral standoff unfolds against a backdrop of multiple, overlapping crises that have left Cameroon's population exhausted and vulnerable.
The Anglophone crisis, which began in 2016 with peaceful protests by English-speaking lawyers and teachers against the central government's imposition of French-speaking judges and administrators, has evolved into a full-scale armed conflict. Following the suppression of 2016–17 protests by Cameroonian authorities, separatists in the Anglophone regions launched a guerrilla campaign and later proclaimed independence as "Ambazonia."
The violence has been devastating. At least 6,000 civilians have been killed by both government forces and separatist fighters since late 2016. As of mid-2025, there were over 638,000 internally displaced people across the Anglophone regions and at least 1.7 million people in need of humanitarian aid. More than 76,000 Cameroonians have fled to Nigeria as refugees.
Both sides have committed serious abuses. State forces have responded to separatist attacks with counter-insurgency operations that often failed to protect civilians, or targeted them outright. In February 2020, governmental security forces and allied ethnic Fulani militia killed 21 civilians in a massacre in Ngarbuh, a town in the Anglophone-majority North West region. In March 2020, military personnel committed mass rape in a raid in Ebam, a village in the Anglophone-majority South West region.
Separatist fighters have also targeted civilians, forcing people to stay at home through lockdowns and launching attacks around major events. Armed separatists have violently enforced a boycott on education since 2017, attacking schools, students, and education professionals. According to the United Nations, at least 2,245 schools are not functioning in the Anglophone regions due to attacks and threats by armed separatists, leaving approximately 488,656 children affected.
In the Far North region, civilians face killings and abductions by armed Islamist groups, including Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). Between January and July 2025, at least 169 civilians died in attacks by non-state actors. The Norwegian Refugee Council in June 2025 said Cameroon is now the site of the world's most neglected displacement crisis.
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The succession question looms
Beyond the immediate electoral standoff lies a deeper question that Cameroon cannot avoid much longer: What comes after Paul Biya?
Biya, the world's oldest serving head of state at 92 years old, has been in power since 1982 and served as prime minister from 1975 to 1982. When he first became president, Ronald Reagan's era was in full swing and the Cold War had nearly a decade to run. Most of the eight million Cameroonians who were eligible to vote in Sunday's one-round election have only known one ruler in their lifetime.
Currently rumored to be in poor health, Biya is not seen frequently in public, has little direct contact with US or other foreign officials, and remains relatively reclusive. While he has won recent elections with overwhelming margins—including victory in 2018 with more than 71% of the vote—international observers have consistently raised concerns about the integrity of these electoral processes.
Intense behind-the-scenes jockeying is underway over who might succeed the aging president. Various power brokers have been floated as successors. Talk about one such name, Biya's son Franck, has raised fears of an undemocratic dynastic transition. The uncertainty around succession is a significant risk factor that could trigger factional infighting if not managed transparently.
Regime change is coming in Yaoundé regardless of what happens in the Anglophone regions, according to analysts. Biya rarely appears in public, and while he and others are grooming his son, Franck, to replace him, other elite factions have alternative plans for a post-Biya Cameroon.
Some observers say a non-military solution to the Anglophone crisis is possible only when Biya is gone, but a regime change hardly guarantees a non-military path is taken. The more preparation done now before any transition process begins, the better the chances that a rare, critical juncture moment can work for peace.
International community struggles for influence
The international response to Cameroon's crises has been marked by inconsistency and limited leverage.
The United States has been one of Cameroon's most vocal critics on human rights issues. In February 2019, the United States cut military aid worth $17 million over Cameroon's human rights record and withdrew Cameroon's invitation into the State Partnership Program. In October 2019, President Donald Trump cancelled a trade deal with Cameroon, citing human rights abuses. In June 2021, the United States imposed visa restrictions on anyone deemed to be undermining the peace effort in the Anglophone crisis.
However, from Cameroon's standpoint, US engagement lacks consistency. Washington has been known to walk away, reduce foreign assistance programming, or limit security cooperation when Cameroonian human rights or governance issues become bilateral foreign policy irritants. Regardless, US policymakers expect Cameroon to accept the US worldview even if it doesn't meet the country's development, security, or economic goals.
The European Union has also expressed concern. In March 2019, High Representative Federica Mogherini stated that "the persistent violence and human rights abuses in the North West and South West regions of Cameroon have created an unacceptable number of victims as well as enormous human and material damages." In April 2019, the European Parliament passed a motion condemning human rights violations and calling for an investigation of possible war crimes committed by Cameroonian soldiers.
France, Cameroon's former colonial power, maintains significant influence but its role is complicated. There is broad belief across Cameroon that France pulls the Biya government's strings, or at least has outsized influence on the government's decisions and actions. In the Anglophone regions, distrust of the French is even greater. French President Emmanuel Macron visited Cameroon in July 2022 and offered his support to the government's decentralization efforts. In September 2022, Macron appointed Gen. Thierry Marchand, who has extensive experience in military training and operations across Africa, as the new French ambassador to Cameroon—a signal that France is not prioritizing resolution of the Anglophone crisis.
African countries have been largely silent on the Anglophone crisis and have opposed non-African interference. The African Union remained largely silent until 2019, when it welcomed Swiss-mediated talks that ultimately failed.
In January 2023, Canada's minister of foreign affairs, Mélanie Joly, announced that Cameroon's government and Anglophone separatists had agreed to start negotiations toward a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Although several separatist leaders committed to participating, on January 24, 2023, Cameroon's authorities publicly disavowed Canada's initiative, claiming it had not mandated a third party to facilitate any peace process. The public denial came as a surprise, as Yaoundé initially took part in Canada-led negotiations, and dashed hopes for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
In September 2022, the Cameroon government terminated a struggling Swiss-facilitated mediation process launched in 2019. The government never seriously engaged and even those opposition stakeholder groups involved were never convinced of its authenticity.
The UN Security Council has held only one meeting on Cameroon—an Arria-formula meeting on the humanitarian situation in 2019. Despite the severity of the crises, Cameroon rarely gets much attention on the world stage. The Norwegian Refugee Council's designation of Cameroon as home to "the world's most neglected displacement crisis" in June 2025 reportedly incensed the government, but the designation is accurate.
What happens next
As Cameroon awaits the Constitutional Council's official results, several scenarios could unfold—each with profound implications for the country's future.
If Biya is declared the winner, particularly with the overwhelming margins he has achieved in past elections, Tchiroma and his supporters face difficult choices. Will they accept the result and work within the system? Will they take to the streets in protest, risking the violent crackdowns that have characterized government responses to dissent? Or will they pursue legal challenges through a Constitutional Council that many view as lacking independence?
The government has made clear it is prepared to use force. The additional preemptive deployment to Tchiroma's northern stronghold suggests authorities are ready for confrontation. Given the precedent of Kamto's arrest in 2018, Tchiroma and his inner circle face real risks of detention if they continue to challenge official results.
If Tchiroma is declared the winner—or if the results are close enough to be genuinely contested—Cameroon enters uncharted territory. Biya and the entrenched CPDM elite have never peacefully transferred power. The party controls 164 out of 180 seats in the National Assembly and all 70 elected senate seats, plus the 30 appointed by the president. A Biya loss would threaten not just political power but the patronage networks and economic interests that have sustained the regime for over four decades.
The Anglophone crisis adds another layer of volatility. Separatist groups have rejected the electoral process entirely and have violently enforced boycotts in those regions before. The election results, whatever they are, will do nothing to address the underlying grievances that have fueled six years of armed conflict. Without a credible political process to address federalism, language rights, and historical marginalization, the violence will continue.
The humanitarian situation will almost certainly worsen. With 800,000 fewer people receiving assistance due to aid cuts, with millions facing food insecurity, and with over 600,000 children estimated to be suffering from acute malnutrition in 2024-2025, Cameroon's population is increasingly desperate. Electoral violence or prolonged political uncertainty could trigger further displacement and suffering.
For external actors, the moment demands more than statements of concern. The United States, European Union, African Union, and individual countries with influence in Yaoundé must coordinate pressure for a transparent electoral process and meaningful political dialogue. But as the failed Canadian and Swiss mediation efforts demonstrate, Cameroon's government has proven adept at deflecting international pressure while maintaining support from key partners like France.
A pivotal moment for democracy in Central Africa
Cameroon's electoral crisis is about more than one country's democratic future. As one analysis noted, it is part of a broader test of whether Africa's elections will uphold democratic norms or contribute to a slide backward.
Cameroon occupies a strategic position in Central Africa. Located on the Gulf of Guinea, it connects landlocked countries like Chad and the Central African Republic to the Atlantic Ocean. Its ports at Douala and Kribi provide a significant economic lifeline, facilitating the export of crude petroleum, natural gas, and timber and the import of refined petroleum, food, and clothing. Instability in Cameroon would have ripple effects across the region.
The country also serves as a crucial partner in regional security efforts. Cameroon plays a key role in countering terrorism in the Lake Chad Region as part of the Multinational Joint Task Force against ISIS-West Africa and Boko Haram. It hosts over 400,000 refugees from the Central African Republic, Nigeria, Chad, and Niger. A descent into wider conflict would undermine these regional security efforts and could trigger new refugee flows.
For Cameroon's 28 million people, the stakes could not be higher. A genuinely free and fair election followed by peaceful transfer of power would demonstrate that democratic change is possible even in countries with long-entrenched authoritarian rule. It would create space for addressing the Anglophone crisis through political dialogue rather than military force. It could unlock Cameroon's economic potential by attracting investment and better harnessing the country's resources for development.
But a blatantly rigged vote or violent suppression of dissent would deepen the country's divisions, fuel the ongoing conflicts, and potentially trigger the kind of ethnic, linguistic, or regional fracturing that has torn apart other African nations. The potential for Cameroon to fragment around ethnic, linguistic, religious, or other lines could look similar to, or potentially worse than, the break-up of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
Three days after the vote, no official numbers have been divulged, not even voter turnout. Issa Tchiroma walks on eggshells to maintain tension among his supporters while avoiding arrest. Images of tally sheets and blackboards showing results have circulated on social media, fueling claims of victory among both Biya and Tchiroma's camps. The truth remains obscured, and with it, Cameroon's future hangs in the balance. The world's most neglected displacement crisis is about to discover whether it will also become one of Africa's most dangerous political transitions.
